U-G-G-L-A, You Ain’t Got No Alibi

Dave Carlson, Cubs Superfan

The All-Star Game has come and gone, and every year, it signals two things in baseball:

1. It’s just past the halfway point of the season, so we have enough evidence of which teams have realistic playoff hopes.

2. The AL has better All-Stars than the NL. I need someone to assure me that I’ll never see Dan Uggla on an All-Star roster again.

But let’s get back to the first item. In the first half of the season, the Cubs have shown they belong at the top of the crowded NL Central, by leading the league in most major offensive categories, including runs scored, BB, AVG, OBP and SLG. And according to the Baseball Prospectus formula, they have the division’s highest hitter VORP (Value Over Replacement Player, or league-average player) by a wide margin.

The Cubs also hold a huge division lead in pitching VORP, despite the success of Milwaukee and St. Louis. This just assures us that the Northsiders can still lay claim to having the most talent in the division.

They can’t, however, claim to having the luckiest pitching: that honor goes to Milwaukee, who sports a league-high 110 DIP%. What that means is, given league-average defense on balls hit into play, The Brewers’ team ERA has been 10% “luckier” than their actual team ERA. You could attribute part of that to good defense, although the Cubs rate higher in Defensive Efficiency than the Crew. Mostly, you can attribute that to the fact that balls hit into play are finding their way to the fielders rather than finding the gaps.

Statistics tend to regress toward the mean as sample sizes increase, so that means that as the Brewers play more games, their luck will begin to run out and we should see them surrender more runs. And that’s good news considering their schedule the rest of the way is easier than the Cubs’.

One final All Star thought: What are Jeff Kent and Mark DeRosa thinking when they sit at home and watch Dan Uggla go 0-4 with 3 Ks and 3E? That must be like getting passed up for a promotion at work, and it turns out the guy they gave the raise to is stealing office supplies.